Wall Street commentator and TV wack-job Jim Cramer shocked the world a few weeks ago when on live national morning television he told EVERYONE who needed to have liquid cash in the next 5 years to take EVERY penny out of the stock market IMMEDIATELY. The news sites talked of it all day long as if God himself delivered the message to his people from the holiest of mountaintops. I was beyond taken aback – stunned actually while saying aloud, “Who the hell are YOU?” I mean REALLY! This is the ADHD sociopath who rants, raves, screams, spits, and bobs his chrome dome while waving his body parts on his show. This irked me knowing that 90% of Florida’s residents were going to call their brokers and SELL, then stuff the cash under their Sealy until the rest of their days.

When you hear a Warren Buffet or a Jack Welch type give this kind of advise, one tends to take heed. But when a TV zealot who plays sound effects when picking stocks while throwing stuffed baby cows at the camera makes a brash statement as he did – you tend to get a little nervous. I have the same problem with Suze Orman. OK, lets get past the fact that she’s a dead ringer for Herman Munster in drag (Grandpa, did you mess with your 401K?…DARN, DARN, DARN!), I watched her pleading congress to pass the bailout bill with great immediacy and that nothing would be sane again until it was passed. It was asinine rhetoric that these two talking heads were purveying – all for the sake of ratings. They’ll deny it but they are WAY full of Wall Street BULL.

These two in particular have sensationalized the market and money management and I just can’t listen to their preaching from their ivory towers. House fraus suck up every word Orman has to say with an “Oprah Goddess” kind of zeal, while the Maxim Magazine crowd eats up Jimmy C’s belligerent “vein in the neck” popping tirades. With so many dumb-ass Americans, the two so-called “gurus” know that the average mentality is, “Gosh – if they’re saying it on TV, then it’s gotta be true!”

Personally there are a lot of good money people out there and the best advise is to see what everyone has to say. Then weigh your options and use good judgment. Talk to people, read some books, surf the net and find out the differences of opinion and what makes the most sense to you. The fact that the market is doing a Mt. Vesuvius each day is because people aren’t following the tried and true method of long-term investing. Chicken Little syndrome is running amuck out there and self-proclaimed seers like Cramer are provoking the chaos.

I happen to be in the Larry Winget camp on this one. I recently spoke with the author of NY Times Best Seller, You’re Broke Because You Want to Be” and what he said made so much sense to me…

“I am against this Bailout! I know the ramifications and I know what they SAY will happen if we don’t. I don’t buy it. Lots of economists don’t buy it either. When you reward bad behavior you set a bad example and in this case, you set a precedent where any time an industry gets in trouble, they will consider it their right to go to the government (that’s you and me) to bail them out. I am also against it because any behavior, when rewarded will be repeated. I am also against it because any lesson, not learned will be repeated. This lesson is not being learned because the consequences are not being imposed. You take your licks now or you take them later. I would rather see us take them now. Add to that the fact that we don’t know if it will work or not. For $700 Billion we should know whether it is going to work or not. We don’t have a CLUE.”

He’s right – we don’t have a clue.

You know if the theory holds true that people basically believe what they hear on TV and in the news, I say we try this – round up all the news people, the stock prognosticators, and the Wall Street analysts. Have them all conspire (for our own good) and EVEY SINGLE ONE OF THEM come out and say that the market is great, the global climate is super, it’s a fantastic time to buy – put your faith back into the stock market and start spending again! Like the lemmings we are as a society, things would turn around immediately. Why? Because it’s all based on perception. Right now EVERYONE “believes” that things are bad so it continues to feed on itself becoming a toxic self-fulfilling prophecy. I remember about ten years ago, the semi-conductor market was all the rage and I was snacking on the profits of chip-makers for months. Then some “well-regarded” analyst came out with a forecast that was suddenly dismal for companies like AMD and Texas Instruments. In one week’s time my shares in these chip manufactures plummeted like a lead bag of Doritos. I often though, “What IF that guy said things were good – continue to buy?” I can almost assure you what would have happened. I might be a little facetious here with ya’ll – but not as much as you think.

All right, I know what I said is asinine and all “pie-in-the-sky” goofy, but damn, has anything else worked? I agree with Larry that we should lick our wounds now and learn from it. Why was there such a HUGE rush to put together the “Bailout” package? Why did we rush a 700 billion dollar plan – just to watch the bipartisan ass wipes point fingers at one another and act like a pack of third-grade retards? The whole thing was shameless.

It seems like the only real sane advice – is to stay sane throughout this juncture in time. I mean, what else can you really do? Does panicking help? No. Does lying awake, tossing and turning over your retirement plan help? No. And while they are smart people, I don’t think listening to Cramer and Orman verbatim helps a whole lot, either. In the Clint Eastwood film, Heartbreak Ridge, Clint’s mission was to turn a group of motley marines into crack soldiers. His biggest advise for success in the turbulent world of war was that you need to “adapt, correct, change, and modify.” It’s what WE collectively need to do, people.

BTW, do you know who Leonard the Monkey is? He’s a real life ape who was used to pick stocks against Cramer’s famed Lightning Round picks. After three years, I believe the two are tied but Leanord has something like double the return on investment. And all Suze needs to do is throw a couple of neck bolts on and her Halloween costume is set.

Ooo-fah!

Happy Monday to All,

Tommy Z.

JR Cigar Blog With the Zman